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Wednesday, March 26, 2025
Sunday, March 23, 2025
Wednesday, March 19, 2025
FOMC DAY
Today is FOMC Day. At 2PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee known as the FOMC will give its economic projections and interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 2:30PM ET.
Given the commotion and dark cloud of uncertainties hovering over the market, the Fed has no choice but give a very dovish report to calm things down otherwise we might see a market crash since there is no clarity coming from the White House, rather, more uncertainties as the days go by. With that in mind, I'm expecting a market rally today and the days ahead. So look for a very bullish day because the Committee has no choice but to acknowledge the risk of a recession (if not depression) as a result of policy decisions coming from the White House. And before it is too late, to start taking actions to avoid it instead of brushing it off like it did the last time.
In my opinion, their last decision calling for "patience" will not work this time. I don't think the market wants to hear that again though it was the right thing to do six weeks ago since the policy decisions of the White House hadn't yet made their way into the economic reports because economic data is a lagging indicator. On the other hand, the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy since it is real-time information. It leads the economy by a few months.
Given the commotion and dark cloud of uncertainties hovering over the market, the Fed has no choice but give a very dovish report to calm things down otherwise we might see a market crash since there is no clarity coming from the White House, rather, more uncertainties as the days go by. With that in mind, I'm expecting a market rally today and the days ahead. So look for a very bullish day because the Committee has no choice but to acknowledge the risk of a recession (if not depression) as a result of policy decisions coming from the White House. And before it is too late, to start taking actions to avoid it instead of brushing it off like it did the last time.
In my opinion, their last decision calling for "patience" will not work this time. I don't think the market wants to hear that again though it was the right thing to do six weeks ago since the policy decisions of the White House hadn't yet made their way into the economic reports because economic data is a lagging indicator. On the other hand, the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy since it is real-time information. It leads the economy by a few months.
Sunday, March 16, 2025
SPX WEEKEND REVIEW
SPY-WEEKLY
SPX-DAILY III
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SPX-240MIN
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SPY-15MIN
Friday, March 14, 2025
SPX
While the charts look very bullish, it is difficult for me to tell if things will materalize given that the market has been moving not based on its own weight (technicals) but based on news (tariffs/trade wars). I make trading decisions based on technicals not based on news. But what is one to do if you do your homework only for it to be negated with the constant changing news stream and mixed messages?
At some point, the market will stop reacting to tariff news because it would have been priced in. But at the moment, the market is very sensitive to tariff news because traders/investors are very emotional. That is why everyday the market opens with a big gap. It is what it is though.
Based on my experience, every president (Democrats and Republicans) stays out of the way of the market and the decisions of the Federal Reserve (interest rates). But that isn't the case with Trump. He constantly toils with the market and the Federal Reserve decisions.
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-240MIN
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At some point, the market will stop reacting to tariff news because it would have been priced in. But at the moment, the market is very sensitive to tariff news because traders/investors are very emotional. That is why everyday the market opens with a big gap. It is what it is though.
Based on my experience, every president (Democrats and Republicans) stays out of the way of the market and the decisions of the Federal Reserve (interest rates). But that isn't the case with Trump. He constantly toils with the market and the Federal Reserve decisions.
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-240MIN
SPX-120MIN
SPX-60MIN
SPX-30MIN
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