SPX-DAILY I
SPX-240MIN
SPX-60MIN II
SPX-60MIN I
SPY-15MIN
Friday, May 30, 2025
Monday, May 26, 2025
MARKET MANIPULATION FAILING?
Yesterday, President Trump announced that he delayed the 50% tariff on European Union to July 9 from the June 1 deadline after a call with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
The extension comes after Trump on Friday suggested a “straight 50% tariff” on the European Union because the 27-nation bloc “has been very difficult to deal with." And that “our discussions with them are going nowhere!”
What I want you to notice is that the market barely reacted when he mentioned the 50% tariff on the EU on Friday. Traders and investors have learned not to believe Trump. You can only cry wolf so many times before you are ignored.
The same thing happened on Thursday the 8th and Friday the 9th whereby, President Trump desperately kept trying to pump up the market just before Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were to meet with their counterparts from China in Switzerland for US-China trade talks on Saturday the 10th and Sunday the 11th. Trump kept saying people should "buy buy buy" because there was going to be a big trade news coming out of Switzerland even though the meeting was days away. In other words, US was set for capitulation.
For those two days (the 8th and 9th), the market was very quiet and did not react at all to what Trump was saying including the fact that he suggested that the tariff on China was going to be decreased from 145% to 80%. When that didn't have his desired effect on the market, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick went on television on the 9th and said the tariff was going to be reduced to 34%. Still, the market ignored it. It wasn't until Monday the 12th that the market made a big gap up because the tariff on China was slashed from 145 to 30%! The reduction was so massive and unexpected that the market had to react. I believe the market reacted not only because it was a fact (after seeing the result of the meeting), but because China in a joint statement with the United States said the same thing.
The reason I'm writing this is to point out that I'm very happy traders and investors are coming to their senses and ignoring this noise and market manipulation. Just let the market move on its own weight. What Trump is doing is very annoying and frustrating to market participants like myself. That is why they are starting to ignore whatever he says unlike in the past.
So expect any "good news" from the EU-tariff-delay just announced to reverse right when the market opens on Tuesday. So if the market opens with a gap up on Tuesday (as it likely will), it is very likely going to be an Exhaustion Gap (gap up and drop).
Another reason I'm writing is to point out that, this tariff uncertainty will make it difficult for businesses and corporations to plan for the future with this ongoing and unpredictable changes in tariff rates imposed on imported goods. Even products made totally in the United States (without imported parts) will see elevated prices in order to dampen the effect on imported items through cost sharing, as a way to keep cost down on those imported items, or even to game the system. As a result, prices will increase on everything.
So we are heading into a stagflation period because there will be high inflation (prices will increase on everything) combined with low economic growth and high unemployment (businesses and corporations will avoid hiring and expanding because they can't plan due to uncertainty/fear of the unknown).
The extension comes after Trump on Friday suggested a “straight 50% tariff” on the European Union because the 27-nation bloc “has been very difficult to deal with." And that “our discussions with them are going nowhere!”
What I want you to notice is that the market barely reacted when he mentioned the 50% tariff on the EU on Friday. Traders and investors have learned not to believe Trump. You can only cry wolf so many times before you are ignored.
The same thing happened on Thursday the 8th and Friday the 9th whereby, President Trump desperately kept trying to pump up the market just before Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were to meet with their counterparts from China in Switzerland for US-China trade talks on Saturday the 10th and Sunday the 11th. Trump kept saying people should "buy buy buy" because there was going to be a big trade news coming out of Switzerland even though the meeting was days away. In other words, US was set for capitulation.
For those two days (the 8th and 9th), the market was very quiet and did not react at all to what Trump was saying including the fact that he suggested that the tariff on China was going to be decreased from 145% to 80%. When that didn't have his desired effect on the market, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick went on television on the 9th and said the tariff was going to be reduced to 34%. Still, the market ignored it. It wasn't until Monday the 12th that the market made a big gap up because the tariff on China was slashed from 145 to 30%! The reduction was so massive and unexpected that the market had to react. I believe the market reacted not only because it was a fact (after seeing the result of the meeting), but because China in a joint statement with the United States said the same thing.
The reason I'm writing this is to point out that I'm very happy traders and investors are coming to their senses and ignoring this noise and market manipulation. Just let the market move on its own weight. What Trump is doing is very annoying and frustrating to market participants like myself. That is why they are starting to ignore whatever he says unlike in the past.
So expect any "good news" from the EU-tariff-delay just announced to reverse right when the market opens on Tuesday. So if the market opens with a gap up on Tuesday (as it likely will), it is very likely going to be an Exhaustion Gap (gap up and drop).
Another reason I'm writing is to point out that, this tariff uncertainty will make it difficult for businesses and corporations to plan for the future with this ongoing and unpredictable changes in tariff rates imposed on imported goods. Even products made totally in the United States (without imported parts) will see elevated prices in order to dampen the effect on imported items through cost sharing, as a way to keep cost down on those imported items, or even to game the system. As a result, prices will increase on everything.
So we are heading into a stagflation period because there will be high inflation (prices will increase on everything) combined with low economic growth and high unemployment (businesses and corporations will avoid hiring and expanding because they can't plan due to uncertainty/fear of the unknown).
Monday, May 19, 2025
SPX
All the charts look very bearish. Just needs a catalyst. I guess Moody's downgrade of U.S. credit rating wasn't good enough as a catalyst. But note that a bull trap/fake-out may be in play.
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-240MIN
SPX-120MIN
SPX-60MIN
SPX-30MIN
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-240MIN
SPX-120MIN
SPX-60MIN
SPX-30MIN
SPX WEEKEND REVIEW
All the charts look very bearish.
SPX-QUARTERLY
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-240MIN
SPX-60MIN
SPX-30MIN
SPX-QUARTERLY
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-240MIN
SPX-60MIN
SPX-30MIN
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
Monday, May 5, 2025
Thursday, May 1, 2025
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