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Thursday, August 14, 2014
BA, GOOGL, GS, SLB, TSLA, SPX
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EARNINGS PREVIEW
My focus is on JCP. All the others are just for fun as I try to gain "experience" with earnings (if there is such a thing).
J.C. Penney (JCP):
Fundamentally it is 8 out of 10 (bullish). The long-term fundamentals are really bad. But my focus is on what it will do the next three to six months fundamentally. I'm not an investor/long-term trader. That is, I don't buy and hold for years. So I really don't care about the long-term picture. As a matter of fact, even if I had the money to invest, I will not even consider J.C. Penney because it looks bad long-term. It keeps losing money, and will report another loss today (but not as bad as expected).
Technically it is bullish.
I will buy September Calls.
Something very important to note is that the current short interest as a percentage of the float is 27%. This is very high. It means that out of the float (shares that can be freely bought and sold), 27% are sold short by the bears i.e they want/expect it to drop. So if JCP can report a decent earnings after the close today, we could see it fly (not run) up due to sharp short-covering (short-squeeze) rally. I will not be surprise to see it move up (or down) >30, 40, 50%...after reporting. I'm actually expecting it to do just that. But this is a dangerous play because it is very unlikely that it will give me back my money before expiration if the trade goes against me. It is a very high-risk, high-reward trade. So any money I put in the trade will be considered dead if it goes against me.
Sina (SINA):
Fundamentally it is 2 out of 10 (very bearish).
Technically it is more bearish than bullish.
I like October Puts if I was to take the trade.
Estee Lauder (EL):
Fundamentally it is 8.5 out of 10 (bullish)
Technically it is bullish.
I like October Calls if I was to take the trade.
Applied Materials (AMAT):
Fundamentally it is 8 out of 10 (bullish).
Technically it is bullish.
I like October Calls if I was to take the trade.
Autodesk (ADSK):
Fundamentally it is 7 out of 10 (borderline bullish)
Technically it is bullish.
I like October Calls if I was to take the trade - aggressive play
Nordstrom (JWN):
Fundamentally it is 7 to 8 out of 10 (bullish).
Technically it looks bullish and bearish.
Based on fundamentals, I like October Calls if I was to take the trade - aggressive play.
Agilent (A):
Fundamentally it is 7 out of 10 (borderline bullish).
Technically it is bullish.
This play is very aggressive for a few reasons:
1) I don't like the bid-ask spread.
2) I would have preferred October Calls but they are not available.
3) The fundamentals are borderline bullish.
J.C. Penney (JCP):
Fundamentally it is 8 out of 10 (bullish). The long-term fundamentals are really bad. But my focus is on what it will do the next three to six months fundamentally. I'm not an investor/long-term trader. That is, I don't buy and hold for years. So I really don't care about the long-term picture. As a matter of fact, even if I had the money to invest, I will not even consider J.C. Penney because it looks bad long-term. It keeps losing money, and will report another loss today (but not as bad as expected).
Technically it is bullish.
I will buy September Calls.
Something very important to note is that the current short interest as a percentage of the float is 27%. This is very high. It means that out of the float (shares that can be freely bought and sold), 27% are sold short by the bears i.e they want/expect it to drop. So if JCP can report a decent earnings after the close today, we could see it fly (not run) up due to sharp short-covering (short-squeeze) rally. I will not be surprise to see it move up (or down) >30, 40, 50%...after reporting. I'm actually expecting it to do just that. But this is a dangerous play because it is very unlikely that it will give me back my money before expiration if the trade goes against me. It is a very high-risk, high-reward trade. So any money I put in the trade will be considered dead if it goes against me.
Sina (SINA):
Fundamentally it is 2 out of 10 (very bearish).
Technically it is more bearish than bullish.
I like October Puts if I was to take the trade.
Estee Lauder (EL):
Fundamentally it is 8.5 out of 10 (bullish)
Technically it is bullish.
I like October Calls if I was to take the trade.
Applied Materials (AMAT):
Fundamentally it is 8 out of 10 (bullish).
Technically it is bullish.
I like October Calls if I was to take the trade.
Autodesk (ADSK):
Fundamentally it is 7 out of 10 (borderline bullish)
Technically it is bullish.
I like October Calls if I was to take the trade - aggressive play
Nordstrom (JWN):
Fundamentally it is 7 to 8 out of 10 (bullish).
Technically it looks bullish and bearish.
Based on fundamentals, I like October Calls if I was to take the trade - aggressive play.
Agilent (A):
Fundamentally it is 7 out of 10 (borderline bullish).
Technically it is bullish.
This play is very aggressive for a few reasons:
1) I don't like the bid-ask spread.
2) I would have preferred October Calls but they are not available.
3) The fundamentals are borderline bullish.
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
GS, SPX
Agilent (A), Applied Materials (AMAT), Autodesk (ADSK), JC Penney (JCP), Nordstrom (JWN) and Sina (SINA) report after the close tomorrow, and Estee Lauder (EL) reports before the open on Friday. I will be studying them CAREFULLY for earnings play tomorrow. (I have been careless with some of my earnings picks). So this will take some time. I will preview any if not all that I'm interested in buying (especially JCP). So check back later. This message will be removed when I'm done.
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Tuesday, August 12, 2014
SPX
I was too exhausted from my trip to the point of falling asleep while reviewing my SPX charts (and was not able to review my watchlist). That is why this is being posted late. I should be back to normal from tomorrow.
WMT EARNINGS PREVIEW:
Walmart reports on Thursday before market opens. I plan on buying October Puts going into earnings. It does not look good. But the problem with WMT is that it does not move i.e low beta and low volatility. So I'm not expecting much from it. A 2-3% move on earnings will be considered a big deal. I hope it is more than that though.
Fundamentally, I will score it at 2.5 out of 10 (very bearish).
Technically, there is a bear flag in play.
WMT-DAILY
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WMT EARNINGS PREVIEW:
Walmart reports on Thursday before market opens. I plan on buying October Puts going into earnings. It does not look good. But the problem with WMT is that it does not move i.e low beta and low volatility. So I'm not expecting much from it. A 2-3% move on earnings will be considered a big deal. I hope it is more than that though.
Fundamentally, I will score it at 2.5 out of 10 (very bearish).
Technically, there is a bear flag in play.
WMT-DAILY
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
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