The last jobs report saw an addition on 126,000 jobs for the month of March. This was considered a big disappointment (I believe). We also saw an ADP employment report of 169,000 two days ago which was below consensus, in addition to a downward revision of March's number. This was also called a big disappointment (I believe).
I think we all know how folks talk, so I don't need to hear or read an article to know that they called both reports "big disappointment", "big miss", "anemic growth" or any other sky-is-falling adjective.
My point is that there is an expectation of a bad report tomorrow(I believe). It also means this report will be closely watched. Likely the most sensitive report in about a year. A good report will be very bullish. It will carry the market up for weeks. For a long time now the market has reacted negatively to very good jobs reports. This was due to very high expectations and fears of rate hike. This time will be different because expectation is low (I believe). So it will not take much to please the market. All it takes is a better number than March's 126,000 (even if it is below the consensus of 220,000). The market will be focused on "improvement". Also note that the market is already tired of hearing about interest rate hike. It was been factored in, that is why of recent "bad" economic data has resulted in a market drop. So bad is bad and good is good AT THIS TIME. Interest rate talk will not be a factor tomorrow regardless of how strong or weak the report is.
Also, I have heard folks talk about technicals leading fundamentals by about three to six months. I'm not sure what they use to determine this. I have never looked into it because I don't trade using fundamentals. But based on my study using SPX and jobs reports, I believe technicals lead fundamentals by about two months (six weeks to be precise). This means that April's jobs report will reflect SPX price action for the month of February. In February, we saw the biggest gain of the SPX in 2015. It also made new all time highs. So look for a better report than the 126,000 in March. Ideally it should be a very strong report (far exceeding the consensus of 220,000), but given the West Coast port closures and winter weather it is hard to say. What I strongly believe is that we will see a better report than the previous one. I also expect it to be revised upwards next month, at the end of the quarter and at the end of the year. I also expect March's report to be revised higher because SPX price action for January though bearish did not warrant the 126,000 relatively speaking.
I know this is confusing. I'm confused myself trying to add or subtract the two months. Just let it sink in for future use. But keep in mind that this is not perfect but very good. Also keep in my that I don't trade using my opinion or fundamentals. So this is mainly a tool to have fun with (if you can).
SPX-DAILY VIII
SPX-DAILY VII
SPX-DAILY VI
SPX-DAILY V
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-30MIN III
SPX-30MIN II
SPX-30MIN I
SPY-15MIN
