MakisSwingTrader

Monday, August 6, 2012

SPX

SPX-DAILY III

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN LONGER TIMEFRAME

SPX-30MIN SHORTER TIMEFRAME

SPX-5MIN

Saturday, August 4, 2012

LOOK FOR STRONG AUGUST AND CRASH THAT STARTS GRADUALLY FROM NOVEMBER.

I believe August is going to be a strong month for stocks with the SPX going as high as 1450. It will be the best month for the year (and the strongest in over 10months).
Very important is the fact that it is also going to be the last solid month for stocks before things fall apart with a massive drop starting in November.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR:
August - Strong Up
September - Small Down
October - Small Up (that will take price to the high for the year - 1470ish).
November - Down
December - Real sell-off begins which will go on for months.

Friday, August 3, 2012

VIX DAILY & SPX MONTHLY REVIEW

VIX-DAILY

SPX-MONTHLY

SPX-WEEKLY

SPX-DAILY V

SPX-DAILY IV

SPX-DAILY III

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN LONGER TIMEFRAME

SPX-30MIN SHORTER TIMEFRAME

SPX-5MIN

Thursday, August 2, 2012

JOBS REPORT EXPECTATION, VIX & SPX

The big drop for the VIX today indicates that the drop of SPX was not called for. Shouldn't have happened (but it is what it is). It should have been a big rise for SPX. So watch for a strong bounce for the SPX.

JUST FOR FUN:
MY EXPECTATIONS FOR FRIDAY'S JOB REPORT BASED ON PRICE ACTION FOR JUNE AND JULY:
1) I believe the 80,000 reported for June will be revised upward significantly.
2) The expectation for July is 100,000. I believe it will come below expectation (<100,000) but higher than June's report (>80,000). So look for between 80,000-100,000 jobs added (likely 90,000). This will also be revised upward in the September's report. (This means that if the real number is report without any revision in September, it will be >100,000 i.e above expectation).
3) The employment rate is not important. Currently at 8.2, I don't see any reason for a significant move one way of the other. So it will stay between 8.1-8.3, which means nothing for the market i.e it will not impact Friday's market action.

EFFECT ON THE MARKET:
I believe the market will run up from the report. The run up will be due to upward revision of June's number even if July's number comes less than expected (<100,000 but >80,000). But if it comes out >100,000 then look for a real strong run up for the market (especially combined with upper revision of June number).
Watch for an initial drop for the market drop based on emotion (if it comes below expectation) that turns around into a strong bull run as the number is digested.
REVISION IS KEY TOMORROW!!!

VIX-DAILY