JUST FOR FUN:
MY EXPECTATIONS FOR FRIDAY'S JOB REPORT BASED ON PRICE ACTION FOR JUNE AND JULY:
1) I believe the 80,000 reported for June will be revised upward significantly.
2) The expectation for July is 100,000. I believe it will come below expectation (<100,000) but higher than June's report (>80,000). So look for between 80,000-100,000 jobs added (likely 90,000). This will also be revised upward in the September's report. (This means that if the real number is report without any revision in September, it will be >100,000 i.e above expectation).
3) The employment rate is not important. Currently at 8.2, I don't see any reason for a significant move one way of the other. So it will stay between 8.1-8.3, which means nothing for the market i.e it will not impact Friday's market action.
EFFECT ON THE MARKET:
I believe the market will run up from the report. The run up will be due to upward revision of June's number even if July's number comes less than expected (<100,000 but >80,000). But if it comes out >100,000 then look for a real strong run up for the market (especially combined with upper revision of June number).
Watch for an initial drop for the market drop based on emotion (if it comes below expectation) that turns around into a strong bull run as the number is digested.
REVISION IS KEY TOMORROW!!!
VIX-DAILY
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-30MIN LONGER TIMEFRAME
SPX-30MIN SHORTER TIMEFRAME
SPX-5MIN
