AMZN, BA, DIA, FB, GOOGL, GS, NFLX, WHR, SPX WEEKEND REVIEW

Apart from SPX, I did not look at my watchlist/charts this week. Even SPX (and SPY-15MIN) wasn't my focus. I looked at them just because they had to be posted. My focus was on making earnings play. It was an experiment. I have never done something like that before. It was also a time consuming process that is why my posts were late this week. I was being very careful and conservative. Now that the week is over, I will go back to my normal way of doing things. However, with my experience from this week, I will still post some earnings plays next week while maintaining my watchlist and posting in a timely manner.
I was going to stop making earnings plays after this week since it was the major week for reporting, but I realized that there are still some interesting names that tend to move with earnings that haven't reported yet. So I will be previewing them the day before they report.
BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

TWTR    Tuesday, July 29th AMC
YELP     Wednesday, July 30th AMC
AKAM   Wednesday, July 30th AMC
TSLA     Thurs, July 31st AMC
LNKD    July 31st unofficial
SCTY     August 4th unofficial
GMCR   Wednesday, August 6th AMC
CREE    Tuesday, August 12th AMC
CRM      August 25th unofficial

AMZN-DAILY


AMZN-15MIN


BA-15MIN

DIA-15MIN


FB-DAILY


FB-15MIN


GOOGL-15MIN


GS-15MIN


NFLX-15MIN


WHR-DAILY


WHR-15MIN


SPX-MONTHLY II


SPX-MONTHLY I


SPX-WEEKLY


SPX-DAILY VIII


SPX-DAILY VII


SPX-DAILY VI


SPX-DAILY V


SPX-DAILY IV


SPX-DAILY III


SPX-DAILY II


SPX-DAILY I


SPY-15MIN

AAPL, FB, SPX

AAPL-15MIN


FB-DAILY


FB-15MIN


SPX-DAILY V


SPX-DAILY IV


SPX-DAILY III


SPX-DAILY II


SPX-DAILY I


SPY-15MIN

AAPL, AMZN, FB, SPX

Today is the last day of analyzing earnings plays. I will go back to normal from tomorrow.

FACEBOOK:
I was wondering yesterday if I was going to buy FB going into earnings report after the close today. The big move today of 2.92% (high of 71.33) eliminated that plan because it came close to my interested target of 72.50 (which I talked about). So it was not worth the taking the risk no matter my confidence level.
However, I had a feeling it was going to make a run above 72.50. Something I didn't have when I looked at Apple going into its report, and having exactly the same appearance as FB. I kept thinking about it but I just did not have the guts to go for it. I guess hindsight is 20/20. Now it is at 75ish after hours, and it will go to 80 easily (see FB-DAILY chart).

BAIDU:
Reports after the close tomorrow. I was going to buy BIDU Call options going into earnings (as I said yesterday) but I changed my mind because of what I saw on the charts. The fundamentals look good but the technicals are overextended. It has been on a run up since the beginning of May. So upside move is limited even with a solid report. But I will not be surprise if it makes another big move up after earnings (just because it is Baidu).

AMAZON:
It reports after the close tomorrow. Fundamentally, I will score it at 4 to 5 out of 10. I am being generous. It just doesn't look good. The reason I gave it that score is because the good data look decent. On the other hand, the bad data is so bad that it overshadows the good. So I'm very hesitant giving it such a "good" score. Also, in the last seven quarters, it has beaten earnings only once.
On the technical side, it looks a lot more bearish than bullish (see AMZN-DAILY chart).
So the conclusion to the matter is that I am bearish AMZN going into earnings. I will be buying October Put options. We could see a MASSIVE drop after it reports. So don't be surprise if trading gets halted at some point on Friday. I believe the market has been very forgiving towards AMZN. All this could change as mass exodus occurs. I don't think the market will take another earnings disappointment lightly given the earnings performance of other giants such Google, Apple, Facebook etc. The pressure is on for Amazon to perform tomorrow.
Another thing going against it is the fact that it ran up the past two weeks. Usually when that happens, it tends to drop after reporting.
Something to also monitor tomorrow is whether it makes a big move up. If it does, that will be an indication of a drop coming.

AAPL-15MIN


AMZN-DAILY


FB-DAILY


SPX-DAILY VI


SPX-DAILY V


SPX-DAILY IV


SPX-DAILY III


SPX-DAILY II


SPX-DAILY I


SPX-30MIN


SPY-15MIN

FB, SPX

FACEBOOK REPORTS AFTER THE CLOSE TOMORROW:
The fundamentals look strong. I will give it 9 out of 10. Also, it has beaten earnings the last four quarters (and six out of the last seven).
On the technical side, there is nothing special (bullish or bearish). It just wants to continue higher to retest the all-time high of 72.59 (currently at 69.27). So I will give the technicals to the bulls just because you can't fight the trend. But the problem with the technicals is that FB has been on a run since May. This makes it difficult for the bulls going into earnings as it limits the upside potential due to lack of new buyers especially after the run up the past two weeks.
So, based on the technicals and fundamentals, I believe it will go up to retest the high at 72.59 even if it disappoints on earnings tomorrow. I don't see any big drop happening without retesting the high. I also don't see any big gap up occurring beyond 72.50. Thursday is likely going to be like any other day except for increased volatility in the stock. But if it gaps up to 72.50ish, we are likely going to see short-sellers come in and push it lower for the day but without closing the gap i.e an up day but red candlestick. It will then continue lower for a few days till the gap is filled.
I don't think I will play it. It will depend on my mood. My focus since earnings started has been AMZN which reports on Thursday after the close. I will post the review tomorrow. Another stock I will be looking to play is BIDU which also reports after the close on Thursday.
I will close my AAPL position tomorrow if it doesn't make a move (but I still believe it will reach 100 soon). I'm not interested in stocksitting. I will rather take the money and buy FB Calls, with the hope of closing it in the early part of the day on Thursday if it opens at 72.50ish.

FB-WEEKLY


SPX-DAILY VI


SPX-DAILY V


SPX-DAILY IV


SPX-DAILY III


SPX-DAILY II


SPX-DAILY I


SPX-30MIN


SPY-15MIN