FACEBOOK:
I was wondering yesterday if I was going to buy FB going into earnings report after the close today. The big move today of 2.92% (high of 71.33) eliminated that plan because it came close to my interested target of 72.50 (which I talked about). So it was not worth the taking the risk no matter my confidence level.
However, I had a feeling it was going to make a run above 72.50. Something I didn't have when I looked at Apple going into its report, and having exactly the same appearance as FB. I kept thinking about it but I just did not have the guts to go for it. I guess hindsight is 20/20. Now it is at 75ish after hours, and it will go to 80 easily (see FB-DAILY chart).
BAIDU:
Reports after the close tomorrow. I was going to buy BIDU Call options going into earnings (as I said yesterday) but I changed my mind because of what I saw on the charts. The fundamentals look good but the technicals are overextended. It has been on a run up since the beginning of May. So upside move is limited even with a solid report. But I will not be surprise if it makes another big move up after earnings (just because it is Baidu).
AMAZON:
It reports after the close tomorrow. Fundamentally, I will score it at 4 to 5 out of 10. I am being generous. It just doesn't look good. The reason I gave it that score is because the good data look decent. On the other hand, the bad data is so bad that it overshadows the good. So I'm very hesitant giving it such a "good" score. Also, in the last seven quarters, it has beaten earnings only once.
On the technical side, it looks a lot more bearish than bullish (see AMZN-DAILY chart).
So the conclusion to the matter is that I am bearish AMZN going into earnings. I will be buying October Put options. We could see a MASSIVE drop after it reports. So don't be surprise if trading gets halted at some point on Friday. I believe the market has been very forgiving towards AMZN. All this could change as mass exodus occurs. I don't think the market will take another earnings disappointment lightly given the earnings performance of other giants such Google, Apple, Facebook etc. The pressure is on for Amazon to perform tomorrow.
Another thing going against it is the fact that it ran up the past two weeks. Usually when that happens, it tends to drop after reporting.
Something to also monitor tomorrow is whether it makes a big move up. If it does, that will be an indication of a drop coming.
AAPL-15MIN
AMZN-DAILY
FB-DAILY
SPX-DAILY VI
SPX-DAILY V
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-30MIN
SPY-15MIN
