Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.

Unless otherwise specified, ALWAYS use the 15min chart to enter my recommended plays because
CONFIRMATION is a MUST. In other words, you need to see a 15min candlestick that CLOSES beyond
the entry point, then enter when it moves 10cents after the high/low of that candlestick.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

AMZN, GS, SPX

There are two events I always like to be aware of because of market behavior on these days i.e FOMC and Fed Chair Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress (not just any speech by the Fed Chair). Most of the time the events themselves are pointless because everyone (I hope) knows what would be said. One of those events took place today with Fed Chair Dr. Yellen addressing Congress for the semiannual monetary policy testimony before Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. She will repeat the same thing tomorrow before the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services.
I'm saying this because I did not realize this was happening until this morning. If I had checked the economic calendar yesterday, my post would have been different. This is a rare event (happens twice a year). So it is hard for me to keep track of it even when I check the calendar. There are too many "Speaks" on the calendar every week that I don't even look at them. Even when I see her name (or Mr. Bernanke in the past), I usually don't even bother to click on it to find out to who, where or what she is talking about. As a result, I often miss the opportunity to trade the easy market psychology/technical setup that comes with it.
As I have stated several times in the past when Mr Bernanke was still in office, usually the market would drop when he was speaking, then reverse and start going up halfway into his testimony or after the speech (just like what happened today), and then continue higher the next day. But if it didn't drop during his speech, it meant the market was going to close at the high for the day (big rise). Also, if it didn't reverse halfway or after the speech, it meant it was going to close at the low for the day (big drop).

WHAT IS THE POINT?
Keep this in mind so that in the future if I forget to address it (the day before) you will know what to do.
My plan for today would have been completely different if I had known this yesterday. As a result of my recklessness I wasted my time and had mental fatigue for no reason. I was not even able to complete my review or double-check the ones I posted because I got so tied.

MY EXPECTATION FOR TOMORROW (Dr. Yellen day 2):
Look for an up day. It is likely going to be a big one. But note that this is my expectation. It is not written in stone. Past performance does not guarantee future results. I will be disappointed but not surprise if it fails. It wouldn't be the first time for me in this business. The last disappointment was just stated above.

MY RESEARCH:
The testimony takes place twice a year in February and July, but I'm just putting the previous July dates for simplicity. So you can review the SPX charts of these dates if interested. Or you can accept my result.
Feb 11-12 2014 - Dr. Yellen's first testimony. July 17-18, 2013
July 17-18, 2012
July 12-13, 2011
July 21-22, 2010
July 21-22, 2009
July 15-16, 2008
July 18-19, 2007
July 19-20, 2006 (I think this was Mr. Bernanke's first July).

AMZN-15MIN


GS-15MIN


SPX-DAILY V


SPX-DAILY IV


SPX-DAILY III


SPX-DAILY II


SPX-DAILY I


SPX-30MIN


SPY-15MIN
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