Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.

Unless otherwise specified, ALWAYS use the 15min chart to enter my recommended plays because
CONFIRMATION is a MUST.
In other words, you need to see a 15min candlestick that CLOSES beyond
the entry point, then enter when it moves 10cents after the high/low of that candlestick.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

MORE CHARTS ADDED.

I have added:
GS-DAILY
UUP (DOLLAR)-DAILY
VIX-DAILY
VIX-15MIN

 NOTE:
The market (SPX) is setting up for a run up this week. We are likely to see a strong bullish run the next 2weeks. This is also supported by the fact that the UUP and VIX want to drop (= bullish SPX), while the financials are looking bullish.
So be careful if you are a bearish the market. Very risky place to be at this time.

XLF & GS:
Monitor the financials because we could see a huge breakout move on Monday (or soon) as long as current bullish setup stays intact. The charts are begging to run up.
Watch for potential of gap and run (Breakaway Gap). Use opening gap as buy opportunity because that could be the low for the weeks ahead.

Saturday, September 29, 2012

XLF, GS, UUP, VIX & SPX MONTH END REVIEW

FOR THE COMING WEEK:
Look for the market to make a strong run up this week if trades above 1450.

FOR MONDAY:
Key levels to monitor for the SPX (currently at 1440) are 1444 and 1438.
1). If SPX moves >1444 then look for an initial target at 1450. Move above 1450 will push price to 1457-1460. So we could see a big day for the market on Monday.
Also note that 1450 is a key level for the weeks ahead (in addition to its intraday significance for Monday).
2). If SPX moves <1438, then expect a drop to 1433-1431 before a bullish reversal to resume the upside.

XLF(FINANCIAL)-DAILY

GS-DAILY (Can play XLF using GS)

UUP (DOLLAR)-DAILY

VIX-DAILY

VIX-15MIN

SPX-MONTHLY

SPX-WEEKLY

SPX-DAILY VII

SPX-DAILY VI

SPX-DAILY V

SPX-DAILY IV

SPX-DAILY III

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN

SPX-10MIN

Thursday, September 27, 2012

SPX

FOR FRIDAY:
Look for the market to continue higher if the SPX trades above 1450. Though the charts are bullish, I see some weakness on the 5MIN chart that could lead to an initial drop to 1440ish before a reversal and run up. Tomorrow's open will be key.
Key levels to monitor are 1450 and 1444. If it moves above 1450 then the bulls will be in control. But if it moves below 1444, then look for opportunity to make a bullish play because it will reverse higher (likely at 1440ish) for a run up.
So look for the market to move higher early if it moves >1450 or later when it gets to 1440ish. Just a matter of WHEN the bullish leg starts.

Also note that any move >1450 will take price AT LEAST to 1465-1467. But I don't think it will get there tomorrow because I believe it will get to 1458 and stall,  followed by a small drop on Monday before the move higher resumes on Tuesday. But if it gets to 1465-1467 tomorrow, then look for opportunity to make a bear play for a reversal lower that will close <1458 and continue lower on Monday with a small drop. I will take it one day at a time though, because one day's price action can completely change the dynamic.

I say "AT LEAST" 1465-1467 (if it moves intraday >1450 tomorrow) because I expect SPX to go to 1500 (conservative) or 1520 (aggressive) before the next significant pullback that will set up the next leg to 1560. Whether 1500 or 1520 is not important at this time. It will be dealt with when the time is right. My focus is 1500 for now.

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN

SPX-5MIN

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

FOR TOMORROW

The economic calendar is heavy tomorrow with the release of Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Jobless Claims before the open and Pending Home Sales after the open.
Even with the market-moving reports, I expect a quiet open for the market but a strong and steady run up for the day closing at the highs.
I also expect the economic reports to be better than expected, but I do not expect to see any big gap up (or down). This will give opportunity to make an excellent entry to take advantage of the rally for daytrading without the annoying/ugly gaps.
SPX (currently at 1433) is likely to go to 1458.

Note: Go with my chart (5MIN) not my opinion.

GLD & SPX

Look for the market to reverse higher for a bullish run starting tomorrow that will take price to 1500. I believe we will see a big rise tomorrow.

GLD-DAILY

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN

SPX-5MIN

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

DJT, VIX & SPX

FOR TOMORROW:
Look for the market to bounce back. After an initial drop to 1440-1438 at the start of the day, I expect the SPX to move up to 1455-1460. But if it doesn't get there tomorrow, then expect it to continue higher at the early hours of trading on Thursday to 1460.

DJT-DAILY

VIX-DAILY

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN

SPX-5MIN

Monday, September 24, 2012

SPX

Tomorrow looks to be an interesting day (if SPX moves below 1454). I believe we will see a big drop in the first half of the day to 1440-1438 then a strong reversal back up to close at 1450. So look for the opportunity to make both bear and bull trades.
The problem with this prediction is that the bears are just sleeping. Bulls just keep looking for ways to take their lunch (like today). Though very likely, I'm not sure the bears have the strength to pull it down that deep. I will not be holding my breath.

Remember: My opinion does not count, so go with my chart (5MIN).

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN

SPX-5MIN

Sunday, September 23, 2012

OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK

I expect the market to drift lower to 1440-1438 before an upside breakout on Thursday (or Friday) that will take price to 1500 very fast.
It will likely get to 1440-1438 on Tuesday (or Monday), followed by choppy good-for-daytrading sideways move that will setup the breakout.

NOTE:
If SPX moves above 1475 (or 1470 - aggressive), then expect a run up to 1500 regardless of the information above.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

VIX & SPX WEEKEND REVIEW

VIX-DAILY

VIX-15MIN

SPX-MONTHLY

SPX-WEEKLY

SPX-DAILY 7

SPX-DAILY 6

SPX-DAILY 5

SPX-DAILY 4

SPX-DAILY 3

SPX-DAILY 2

SPX-DAILY 1

SPX-30MIN

SPX-5MIN

Thursday, September 20, 2012

FRIDAY

Tomorrow is looking more bearish. But if the market opens and start moving up (which is very likely), then expect a Gravestone Doji or Shooting Star day. That is, if it moves up in the first half of the day, then expect a reversal lower in the second half ending the day flat (Gravestone Doji) or tiny up/down day (Shooting Star).
So if the market starts by going up, look for the opportunity to play the downside when it shows up.
Use 1458 and 1465 as a guide for Friday's trading. But keep in mind that if it gaps open above 1462, then expect a reversal lower very early in the day for a much bigger down day than a Gravestone Doji (starting between 1462-1465).

VIX & SPX

The bears are not serious. They are not ready for prime time. The bulls have control of this market. Today was a day for the bears to make a statement but they just could not. At this point, look for the SPX to drop to 1440-1438 before the bulls take the wheel to regain full control. My expected drop to 1440-1438 is just time for the bulls to relax and regain strength, not because the bears have anything to offer. VIX wants to run up but it will do so without taking the SPX down just like the last two weeks of August. In so doing, it will setup a run up for the market when the VIX reverses and start moving back down.
So look for the VIX to run up while the SPX makes a sideways drift lower, thereby setting up for the SPX to run higher starting the last few days of this month (likely from September 27th).

Just my opinion. So it doesn't count. Let the charts speak

VIX-DAILY

SPX-DAILY III

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN II

SPX-30MIN I

SPX-5MIN