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Unless otherwise specified, ALWAYS use the 15min chart to enter my recommended plays because
CONFIRMATION is a MUST.
In other words, you need to see a 15min candlestick that CLOSES beyond
the entry point, then enter when it moves 10cents after the high/low of that candlestick.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

SPX

FOR FRIDAY:
Look for the market to continue higher if the SPX trades above 1450. Though the charts are bullish, I see some weakness on the 5MIN chart that could lead to an initial drop to 1440ish before a reversal and run up. Tomorrow's open will be key.
Key levels to monitor are 1450 and 1444. If it moves above 1450 then the bulls will be in control. But if it moves below 1444, then look for opportunity to make a bullish play because it will reverse higher (likely at 1440ish) for a run up.
So look for the market to move higher early if it moves >1450 or later when it gets to 1440ish. Just a matter of WHEN the bullish leg starts.

Also note that any move >1450 will take price AT LEAST to 1465-1467. But I don't think it will get there tomorrow because I believe it will get to 1458 and stall,  followed by a small drop on Monday before the move higher resumes on Tuesday. But if it gets to 1465-1467 tomorrow, then look for opportunity to make a bear play for a reversal lower that will close <1458 and continue lower on Monday with a small drop. I will take it one day at a time though, because one day's price action can completely change the dynamic.

I say "AT LEAST" 1465-1467 (if it moves intraday >1450 tomorrow) because I expect SPX to go to 1500 (conservative) or 1520 (aggressive) before the next significant pullback that will set up the next leg to 1560. Whether 1500 or 1520 is not important at this time. It will be dealt with when the time is right. My focus is 1500 for now.

SPX-DAILY II

SPX-DAILY I

SPX-30MIN

SPX-5MIN