MORE EUROPEAN UNION SANCTIONS COMING AGAINST RUSSIA?
My SPX charts have been updated for the possibility of a negative reaction of the market to the news. So review them again.
I usually don't go looking for news as it relates to the stock market (or anything else). There is always some garbage taking place in the world. We live in a fallen/sin infested world. So what do we expect? Garbage in (unrighteousness), garbage out (evil). Nothing good can come out of satan and his demons except trouble, confusion, hatred, fighting, unrest, murder etc. The problem is that we are to dumb and spiritually blind to see that our battle is not against flesh and blood (each other), but against spiritual forces of darkness possessing the minds of people leading them to commit all kinds of atrocities. Instead of taking our battles against Lucifer to God on our knees, we spend the time bickering, which is just what the devil wants. My life is much better not knowing the stupidity that is taking place in the world. Every time I turn on the TV I realize within five minutes why I need to stay away from that JUNK. I'm not surprise since Satan and his cohorts such as the Illuminati, New Age, New World Order... control the airways, and want people to live in fear and frustration. That is their mission. It feels like things got really bad globally this year. Give your life to Jesus and come out of this depraved world. I'm not talking about "going to church" because most churches are controlled by Satan, giving people the false notion they are "Christians" as I once thought I was while living in sin. (Go to church for two hours and then spend the rest of the day and entire week in sin. That qualified me as a "Christian". Even that qualification was too much. The only thing I actually needed was to believe that Christ died for my sins regardless of church attendance. That was good enough for me as long as I'm not killing people and robbing banks.) I'm talking about having a personal relationship with Christ. Go on your knees and pray daily for Him to help you walk in righteousness while you do everything to be righteous such as staying away from stealing, lying, gossiping, evil thoughts, sexual immorality (e.g lust, pornography, mastibation, prostitution, fornication, adultery...), killing, greed, malice, deceit, envy, slander, pride, rudeness, homosexuality, hatred (e.g racism, sexism, discrimination...), drunkenness, jealousy, witchcraft (e.g illuminati, freemasons, new age, black magic, ouija boards, tarot cards, palm reading, pyschics, horoscope...), unforgiveness, abusiveness etc. All these things are products of Lucifer. You cannot be a child of God while holding on to any of this trash. But because we live in a fallen world, it is impossible to avoid these things without the help of God. Satan is too powerful for us. His temptations are very subtle. So we need the help of the Holy Spirit to give us discernment and help to overcome. But that can only come from having a relationship with Christ by asking for forgiveness, strength and guidance to walk the holy path through praying DAILY (morning, afternoon, night or more), reading the Bible DAILY and fasting as often as possible.
Now back to what I was saying. It appears the EU is about to levy more santions on Russia. This means we could see a news-driven "sell the rumor, buy the news" event. That is, we see a drop in the first half of the coming week as traders fear the global impact of the sanctions. That will then be followed by a day or two of no movement (bottom), and finally a run back up as traders realize that the sanctions will not impact the global economy in any significant way once the sanction is levied. So this is a psychological trade. The charts are well positioned for the drop. So it will not come as a surprise to the technicals. Technical analysis will actually be easier if the drop takes place. I was actually hoping to see a pullback. The charts are just too overextended after this 3-week relentless move up. It was becoming more difficult making intraday bull plays because there was no strength left to see big moves. (This was made worse by the fack that the bears were not taking advantage of their opportunities the past week and a half.) So a pullback will be good for the bulls. But I was hoping it came naturally not news-driven. Besides earnings report which is a scheduled event (not a surprise), I dislike news-driven moves because they tend to destroy chart setups and are unpredictable as to when and to what extend they affect the technicals (whether it goes for or against me).
GLD-WEEKLY
GLD-DAILY
GOOGL-15MIN
NFLX-DAILY
NFLX-15MIN
TWTR-DAILY
TWTR-15MIN
SPX-MONTHLY II
SPX-MONTHLY I
SPX-WEEKLY
SPX-DAILY VI
SPX-DAILY V
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-30MIN
SPY-15MIN
Enlarge any chart by clicking on it.
Unless otherwise specified, ALWAYS use the 15min chart to enter my recommended plays because
CONFIRMATION is a MUST. In other words, you need to see a 15min candlestick that CLOSES beyond
the entry point, then enter when it moves 10cents after the high/low of that candlestick.
Unless otherwise specified, ALWAYS use the 15min chart to enter my recommended plays because
CONFIRMATION is a MUST. In other words, you need to see a 15min candlestick that CLOSES beyond
the entry point, then enter when it moves 10cents after the high/low of that candlestick.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Thursday, August 28, 2014
BA, NFLX, WHR, SPX
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
GOOGL, SPX
ABERCROMBIE AND FITCH EARNINGS PREVIEW:
ANF reports before the open on Thursday. Fundamentally it is 2.5 to 3.5 out of 10, so it is very bearish. Also of note is the fact that it beat revenue estimates only twice the last ten quarters.
Technically it is bearish. See chart below. In addition, it has made significant gains the past four weeks, a somewhat bearish sign for earnings.
So based on fundamentals and technicals, I will buy September Puts.
Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that the current short interest as a percentage of the float is 23%. This is a very high number. It indicates that out of the shares that can be freely bought and sold (float), 23% are sold short by the bears because they are expecting it to drop. So if it misses, we could see a sharp drop on Thursday or in the days and weeks ahead. But it also means, if it beats, we will either see a sharp rise on Thursday or the days and weeks ahead depending on how fast the shorts take to cover their positions i.e short-squeeze. So there will be significant movement especially given that ANF tends to make big moves after reporting.
ANF-DAILY
GOOGL-15MIN
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-30MIN
SPY-15MIN
ANF reports before the open on Thursday. Fundamentally it is 2.5 to 3.5 out of 10, so it is very bearish. Also of note is the fact that it beat revenue estimates only twice the last ten quarters.
Technically it is bearish. See chart below. In addition, it has made significant gains the past four weeks, a somewhat bearish sign for earnings.
So based on fundamentals and technicals, I will buy September Puts.
Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that the current short interest as a percentage of the float is 23%. This is a very high number. It indicates that out of the shares that can be freely bought and sold (float), 23% are sold short by the bears because they are expecting it to drop. So if it misses, we could see a sharp drop on Thursday or in the days and weeks ahead. But it also means, if it beats, we will either see a sharp rise on Thursday or the days and weeks ahead depending on how fast the shorts take to cover their positions i.e short-squeeze. So there will be significant movement especially given that ANF tends to make big moves after reporting.
ANF-DAILY
GOOGL-15MIN
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-30MIN
SPY-15MIN
EARNINGS PREVIEW UPDATE
TIF:
I was hoping to see a drop today going to its earnings report before the open tomorrow. That is not happening. But the last hour it has been dropping, hope that is what I need. I will still buy Calls before the close today regardless. I'm doing so because I like the technical setup (as pointed out yesterday). This is an aggressive move though.
ADI:
Reports after the close. I will stay away from it. I'm no longer interested.
I was hoping to see a drop today going to its earnings report before the open tomorrow. That is not happening. But the last hour it has been dropping, hope that is what I need. I will still buy Calls before the close today regardless. I'm doing so because I like the technical setup (as pointed out yesterday). This is an aggressive move though.
ADI:
Reports after the close. I will stay away from it. I'm no longer interested.
Monday, August 25, 2014
GOOGL, SLB, TSLA, TWTR, SPX
ANALOG DEVICES EARNINGS PREVIEW:
ADI reports tomorrow after the close. Fundamentally it is 8 out of 10. Bullish.
Technically it is more bullish than bearish.
If I had to make a play, I will go with October Calls. The problem is that the bid-ask spreads are not good. At the moment my focus is TIF. If get what I want from TIF intraday tomorrow, I will likely not bother with ADI (or take a smaller position). I will also like to see ADI move up intraday tomorrow. If that does not happen I will stay away.
TIFFANY EARNINGS PREVIEW:
TIF reports Wednesday before the open. Fundamentally it is 6 to 7 out of 10. So it is borderline bullish (my cutoff point is 7).
Technically it looks very bullish due to pattern repetition as seen on TIF-DAILY chart.
So based on fundamentals and technicals, I will be buying October Calls.
I will monitor how it acts on Tuesday to be certain with my decision. I'm hoping to see a big down day going to the report.
I will post a message 30mins before the close if I decide not to take any or both of the trades.
ADI-DAILY
TIF-DAILY
GOOGL-15MIN
SLB-DAILY
TSLA-15MIN
TWTR-DAILY
TWTR-15MIN
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPY-15MIN
ADI reports tomorrow after the close. Fundamentally it is 8 out of 10. Bullish.
Technically it is more bullish than bearish.
If I had to make a play, I will go with October Calls. The problem is that the bid-ask spreads are not good. At the moment my focus is TIF. If get what I want from TIF intraday tomorrow, I will likely not bother with ADI (or take a smaller position). I will also like to see ADI move up intraday tomorrow. If that does not happen I will stay away.
TIFFANY EARNINGS PREVIEW:
TIF reports Wednesday before the open. Fundamentally it is 6 to 7 out of 10. So it is borderline bullish (my cutoff point is 7).
Technically it looks very bullish due to pattern repetition as seen on TIF-DAILY chart.
So based on fundamentals and technicals, I will be buying October Calls.
I will monitor how it acts on Tuesday to be certain with my decision. I'm hoping to see a big down day going to the report.
I will post a message 30mins before the close if I decide not to take any or both of the trades.
ADI-DAILY
TIF-DAILY
GOOGL-15MIN
SLB-DAILY
TSLA-15MIN
TWTR-DAILY
TWTR-15MIN
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPY-15MIN
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