ANF reports before the open on Thursday. Fundamentally it is 2.5 to 3.5 out of 10, so it is very bearish. Also of note is the fact that it beat revenue estimates only twice the last ten quarters.
Technically it is bearish. See chart below. In addition, it has made significant gains the past four weeks, a somewhat bearish sign for earnings.
So based on fundamentals and technicals, I will buy September Puts.
Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that the current short interest as a percentage of the float is 23%. This is a very high number. It indicates that out of the shares that can be freely bought and sold (float), 23% are sold short by the bears because they are expecting it to drop. So if it misses, we could see a sharp drop on Thursday or in the days and weeks ahead. But it also means, if it beats, we will either see a sharp rise on Thursday or the days and weeks ahead depending on how fast the shorts take to cover their positions i.e short-squeeze. So there will be significant movement especially given that ANF tends to make big moves after reporting.
ANF-DAILY
GOOGL-15MIN
SPX-DAILY IV
SPX-DAILY III
SPX-DAILY II
SPX-DAILY I
SPX-30MIN
SPY-15MIN
